"A heretical and wise perspective on the economics and consumer patterns of Hollywood. Provocative and eye opening for its depth and intelligent analysis." Thom Mount, Producer and former Universal Studios President.

"This book provides dramatic evidence that, in comparison with the film industry, normally uncertain markets are virtually sure things. Not even popular stars or large first-week audiences are valid predictors of a film's future success. The volume demonstrates what sophisticated analysis can and cannot reveal about an industry in which "no one knows anything." It will be extremely valuable to anyone with an intellectual, financial or other interest in the market for popular films and for anyone concerned with analysis of subjects characterized by extreme uncertainty. Nonspecialists should not be daunted by the demanding technical analysis for there is plenty that will readily be understandable and fascinating to any intelligent reader." William J. Baumol, Professor of Economics, New York University & Senior Research Economist at Princeton University, USA.

With this book, the agnostic mantra of the motion picture industry "nobody knows anything" finally looses its legs. Somebody does know something, and it's Art DeVany. When the history of motion picture industry thought is written, this author and this book will have its unique place and special recognition in that story. The DeSantis Center for Motion Picture Industry Studies, my wife Carol and I are proud to have awarded this cutting-edge scholar the 2001 "Carol and Bruce Mallen Prize for Published Scholarly Contributions to Motion Picture Industry Studies." Bruce Mallen, Ph.D., Director, The DeSantis Center, Dean, College of Business, Florida Atlantic University

"If you want an applied exposition of the "wild" type of uncertainty, this is the book. I know of no better text to understand kurtosis, the contribution of the very small to the very large, and the dynamics of rare events. The value of this book lies way beyond the film industry. In addition it is written with great clarity and does not use anything beyond intuitive mathematics." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD, Empirica LLC. Bestselling author of Fooled by Randomness, (Texere, 2001).

"The breakthrough work of De Vany that is represented in this book is both thoughtful and thorough, providing a theoretical foundation for understanding the statistical dynamics and economic structure of the movie business in a way that has never been done before. Hollywood's business practices and contractual relationships, often characterized as being bizarre and chaotic, are placed in a theoretical framework that makes them all appear quite rational and workable in the context of an economically-driven system. Even if readers do not fully grasp all of the mathematical details, industry executives, analysts, and students are likely to benefit greatly from this book and cannot claim to know the business of Hollywood and its economics until they've been exposed to this material." Harold L. Vogel, author of Entertainment Industry Economics, (CUP, 2001).

"Arthur De Vany has revolutionized the way in which Hollywood can be thought about. He has brought a rigour to the study of film that simply cannot be ignored, even where the reader does not always agree with his conclusions. These articles are essential reading for anyone wanting to understand the manner in which Hollywood works." John Sedgwick, Principal Research Fellow in Economics, London Metropolitan University, UK.

"Screenwriter William Goldman is famous for having said that "nobody knows anything" about the economics of the entertainment industries. His claim is now proved wrong for the movie industry. Arthur De Vany book makes it transparent. Even those who are not very familiar with the sophisticated statistical and econometric tools that he uses will understand the arguments, which are explained with great clarity and lucidity. De Vany's book will soon be among the very few classics on the entertainment industries." Victor Ginsburgh, Professor of Economics at Université libre de Bruxelles, Belgium.

· The Movie Business

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Posted by: Flower Online at September 12, 2006 4:18 AM

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