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The End of the Assault Weapons Ban

June 28, 2005 09:43 AM

My friend and great economist John Lott is at it again. In his LA Times article he looks over the latest evidence on the demise of the Federal assault weapons ban. (I am surprised the LAT published this. I had been a reader of the LAT far back in the Norman Chandler days. I worked out in same gym where his son Otis, the successor Chandler to become publisher, trained when he was a track athlete. Though he improved the Times, he also put it on the track to its current dismal state.)

Several points:

1. The rise predicted by gun control advocates did not occur. They were just wrong and their analysis has always been faulty.

2. Murders fell for the first time since 1999.

3. The pattern of the slight decline over states is revealing; the decline was less in states with bans than in states without them. This pattern is pretty strong evidence against the efficacy of the bans.

4. The number of murders and robberies fell more than the number of other crimes where guns are not typically used.

Even though the numbers are small (you don't expect big changes in only 9 months in either direction), they are wholly contrary to the gun control advocate position.

Some time back I was asked by the Edge Question center to submit a one liner on what I thought was one of the more interesting issues about how science was used in public policy. My statement appears there, but here it is:

The future is over-forecasted and under-predicted.

Advocacy groups are always making forecasts to bring you to their position. They are almost always wrong because nobody can predict these things. Financial analysts are among the worst. So are environmentalists and, as John shows, gun control advocates.

It is not just the movies where nobody knows anything. It is in all complex social processes. It has to be this way.

· Everything

Comments

Posted by: Flower Online [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 12, 2006 7:25 AM

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