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Taleb on Lance

August 4, 2005 12:51 PM

Nassim Taleb is a brilliant and original thinker. He is the author of the much-acclaimed book Fooled by Randomness , a book I used in my Economics of Extreme Events course at UCI. (We are writing a paper together with Mark Spitznagel if I lay off the blogging, motorcycling, golf, softball and other play.) Like Lance, he is a cancer survivor and I think his comment on my Lance post deserves a wide audience. Here it is

"Climbing the Himalayas or running a marathon or winning a bicycle race may give their owner a sense of accomplishment, but they do not benefit humanity-especially when it comes at the detriment of one's health. These competitive games stretch what makes us humans.

Furthermore as a cancer survivor, I feel entitled to say that recovering from cancer is NOT an accomplishment. So worthier many persons than myself and Armstrong failed in that battle, for reasons outside their control."

Best,
Nassim

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD
Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty
Isenberg School of Management
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
& Chairman, Empirica LLC

His Empirica fund is a kurtosis fund, meaning they know that extreme events occur and many people do not take that into account. The kind of trading they do brings a rationality to trading that improves the efficiency of asset prices.

Why don't people correctly anticipate the occurance of extreme events? Hard question, but most people tend to think of probability as a Normal distribution. This is completely wrong. The tendancy to think this way is drummed into us when everything we see is focused on the average, a pretty meaningless statistic for reasons I won't go into here.

Nassim has looked at these problems and you can find out more at his web site Nassim Taleb.

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Comments

Posted by: Flower Online [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 12, 2006 5:42 AM

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Posted by: outsider [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2006 12:47 PM

I think you may have missed the point. Normal distributions are what statisticians often find for events and physiological measures. But, they are wrong. They fail to give sufficient probability to events that are large relative to the estimated normal distribution. In this sense, they are extreme events. We all sense what these events are: Lance is one of them, sports has others like the law of champions that says that champions stay longer at the top rank than do any challengers of lesser rank.

You mischaracterize recovery from disease, as Nassim points out. Most of it is fortuitous; an early diagnosis, a good choice of treatment, a lucky outcome (meaning no one can explain why it turned out this way). What does battling the disease mean in this context? To most, who know little about modern medicine, it means doing what the doctor says and tolerating terrible side effects of treatments. Or, what it means to me and I hope others, it means acquiring the knowledge to make good choices as treatment progresses. Remember cancer is an evolutionary process going on right now in the body of every one. Some keep it at bay for most of their lives. Some don't. What we do, eat and feel may affect the progression.

By the way, I feel free to exploit all the modern technologies, including the best science. An evolutionary perspective just permits deeper insights. It doesn't mean you have to live like an ignorant Luddite who opposes all modern developments.

Posted by: Art [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 4, 2005 5:11 PM

Sorry, I seem to be the dissenter yet again! :o) But, who are we to define normal vs. extreme? Is it a university professor in Boston? Is it ESPN? Is it Budweiser since they control so much of “sports” today? No. In Lance’s case, for his specific athletic skills, mental make up, etc., racing the Tour for three weeks may be normal. Just the same as the Tarahumara tribe of Mexico who routinely run distances we would call extreme, this act is a norm for them. Sitting back and doing an “arm chair” look isn’t quite a valid means of defining the extreme.

The extremes are what in many instances redefine our humanity and, to use a cliché, show us who we really are. The US Navy SEALs go for a week without sleep while running and swimming great distances, carrying telephone poles and rafting all hours in all weather. When BUD/S is over, the men who succeeded _mentally_ in getting through the “extremes” realize that we are the ones who set the limitations upon ourselves.

And recovering from any disease _is_ an accomplishment, period. Cancer, diabetes, heart disease. An individual, whether on his or her own or with the help of family, friends and doctors, has beaten something that threatens to destroy their very lives. An individual’s battle with a disease is simply that: a person’s own fight for his or her own life.

Re Lance: I’ve met Lance. As a teen when he came close to beating triathlon legend Mark Allen. As a first year pro. And a couple of years ago. Does Lance look old? During the tour, he is at his peak. Optimal power:endurance output, lowest amount of bodyfat possible, etc. And when he’s grimacing while charging up an incline enduring weather, hours of riding, etc., yes, he might look a bit rough. However, in person, Lance’s appearance hasn’t changed much since 1993 or 1994. So, to answer an earlier question posed on the blog (which I couldn't answer because of sign in difficulties), no, Lance doesn't look old.

Posted by: Parker [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 4, 2005 3:59 PM

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